A system and method for monitoring a condition of a monitored system. Estimates of monitored parameters from a model of the system provide residual values that can be analyzed using a sequential probability ratio test ("SPRT"). The invention employs empirically derived distributions in the SPRT to provide more accurate and sensitive alerts of impending faults, breakdowns and process deviations. The distributions can be generated from piecewise continuous approximation or spline functions based on the actual distribution of residual data to provide improved computational performance. The distributions can be provided before monitoring, or can be updated and determined during monitoring in an adaptive fashion.