A method for determining a bounding region for a launched weapon. The method processes the course and speed of ocean currents, and the bearing and range to an aim point to determine the resultant speed of the launched weapon. The method then processes the resultant speed to determine a course for the weapon. The method also processes the ownship position at launch, the desired aim point and the resultant speed to determine weapon run time. The method provides a mathematical distribution of the uncertainty in the speed and course of the ocean current and then processes it to generate a scatter region of possible weapon positions. The method then processes the distribution function of the mathematical distribution and the desired aim point to determine a plurality of positions that define a bounding region. Finally, the method quantifies possible positions of the scatter region that are within the bounding region.