A method identifies at what outdoor temperature a heating or cooling system will need to operate at full capacity (e.g., 100% duty cycle) to maintain a desired indoor temperature. The tolerable outdoor temperature limit is identified by extrapolating data collected upon sampling the system's performance (e.g., duty cycle) at various loads (e.g., difference between outdoor temperature and the indoor temperature). In a similar manner, the method can also predict a best achievable indoor temperature for a given outdoor temperature. The tolerable outdoor temperature limit and best achievable indoor temperature can be displayed to indicate whether the system needs servicing.