Techniques are provided for detecting and tracking heart failure based on heart rate, rest rate and activity levels. Briefly, histograms are generated based on rest-rate adjusted heart rate values and corresponding activity level values. Heart failure is then detected and tracked based on an analysis of the histogram. In one example, so long as the activity level of the patient exceeds some minimum threshold, the ratio of adjusted heart rate to activity level is periodically calculated and resulting values are stored in a histogram. Each day, the histogram is compared against a previous histogram to detect any overall trend. For example, the centroid of the histogram can be calculated each day with any changes in the centroid values used to track progression of heart failure.