Improved techniques for estimating dough development times are provided in order to permit rapid and accurate forecasts of dough development times in commercial baking operations with different lots of wheat flour. The method of the invention involves directing near infrared radiation against a dough formulation during mixing thereof, and collecting a plurality of time-dependant absorbance spectra; the spectral data are then analyzed, preferably by calculating magnitude ratios at predetermined spectral absorbances, and then estimating the dough development time as a function of the magnitude ratios.