Disclosed is a method for determining the confidence index of the estimated position for a target device in a wireless system. In the online location determining phase, after knowing the observations of the radio signal for a target device, the target device's probability distribution of location and its motion model are combined to calculate the position uncertainty, thereby giving the confidence index of this location estimate. The invention determines the location probability distribution, and calculates the uncertainty of the location probability distribution and the possible maximum uncertainty under the current situation. Based on these uncertainties, this invention determines the confidence index of the radio signal. The confidence may be regarded as a quantity that the location uncertainty can be excluded in the location prediction. The larger the quantity is, the more confident the estimated location is.