Methods, apparatus, and computer program products for analyzing defect backlogs that arise in the software development process. Analysis is based on a validity ratio that projects the number of open defects that are likely to actually require fixes, a fix rate that describes the performance of the development team charged with fixing the defects, defect census data, and team performance census data. One outcome of the analysis may be an estimate of the date by which the defect backlog should be resolved. Another outcome of the analysis may be an estimate of the capacity of a team to resolve defects between a given start date and a given target date.