The present invention is related to caching data by employing probabilistic predictive techniques. The invention has particular application to multimedia systems for providing local storage of a subset of available viewing selections by assigning a value to a selection and retaining selections in the cache depending on the value and size of the selection. The value assigned to an item can represent the time-dependent likelihood that a user will review an item at some time in the future. An initial value of an item can be based on the user's viewing habits, the user's or a group of user's viewing habit over particular time segment. A value assigned to a selection dynamically changes according to a set of cache retention policies. A selection's value may be reduced based upon age, changes on a user's viewing habits, changes in time segments or a user's modification of the cache retention policies.