Methods and apparatus for predicting the incidence of a new virus a within a system based upon previous infections recorded within the system. According to one aspect of the present invention, a method for responding to a virus alert that provides information pertaining to a new virus includes obtaining the virus alert and assessing a risk level associated with the new virus. The risk level indicates the predicted likelihood that the first virus will cause significant damage in the event that the new virus infects the computer system. Finally, the method includes obtaining computer code such as a driver and/or a dat when the risk level indicates that the new virus may pose a significant risk to the computer system.