A system for forecasting predicted thermal loads for a building comprises
a thermal condition forecaster for forecasting weather conditions to be
compensated by a building environmental control system and a thermal load
predictor for modeling building environmental management system
components to generate a predicted thermal load for a building for
maintaining a set of environmental conditions. The thermal load predictor
of the present invention is a neural network and, preferably, the neural
network is a recurrent neural network that generates the predicted
thermal load from short-term data. The recurrent neural network is
trained by inputting building thermal mass data and building occupancy
data for actual weather conditions and comparing the predicted thermal
load generated by the recurrent neural network to the actual thermal load
measured at the building. Training error is attributed to weights of the
neurons processing the building thermal mass data and building occupancy
data. Iteratively adjusting these weights to minimize the error optimizes
the design of the recurrent neural network for these non-weather inputs.