Systems and methods for managing procurement risk are described. In accordance with a procurement risk management method, a resource sourcing mix is computed from a sourcing portfolio of one or more forward contracts, spot market purchases, and inventory depletion for each period of a planning horizon based on forecast scenarios for resource demand, resource price, and resource availability and a specified inventory carrying policy for the resource. Based upon the computed resource sourcing mix, one or more metrics for evaluating the sourcing portfolio are computed. A system and a computer program implementing the above-described procurement risk management method also are described.