A system, method, software, and portfolios for managing risk in markets
relating to a commodity delivered over a network are described, in which
a market participant constructs portfolios of preferably liquid price
risk instruments in proportions that eliminate the Spatial Price Risk for
the market participant's underlying position. Techniques are also
disclosed for constructing and evaluating new price risk instruments and
other sets of positions, as well as identifying arbitrage opportunities
in those markets. In particular, a "deltas vector" is calculated
concerning a portfolio of future positions and derivative contracts,
wherein the "deltas vector" is the partial derivative of the market
participant's net market position taken with respect to the forward
shadow prices .lamda. of the network which depend upon congestion in the
network. The "deltas vector" can then be used to simplify the valuation
of a derivative contract, develop a hedging strategy, evaluate a hedging
strategy with respect to congestion, identify a successful bidding
strategy at auctions of derivative contracts, and determine an optimal
position in a multi-settlement nodal market. Moreover, techniques are
also described for evaluating the matrix of Power Transfer Distribution
Factors and loss factors (comprising the A matrix) that are needed to
estimate the "deltas vector".