The present invention relates to a method for estimating the risk for development of carcinoma in an individual. More precisely, for estimating the cancer risk in an individual being exposed to human papilloma virus(es) (HPV). The method comprises (i) identification of one or more of said HPV or groups thereof in a sample from said human being; (ii) calculating the amount of HPV of each type or group in the sample and normalising the values to the amount of cells sampled; (iii) estimating the risk for each of the HPV or groups of HPV by comparing each viral titer value from (ii) with type or group specific standard curves for each viral type or group with risk estimation values; and (iv) estimating the combined risk for carcinoma development for the human being from the individual risk estimation curves of the different viral types.