A system, method and computer program product for detection of epidemics caused by malware programs or computer viruses. Detection of local and global epidemics is performed automatically. A source of an epidemic is calculated and analyzed based on collected statistics. A spread of the epidemic is predicted and an accurate prognosis referring to the time frame and to geographical areas of the epidemic spread is made. The prognosis is made based on a calculated value of "connection strength" coefficient. The connection strength coefficient reflects a volume of information exchange (i.e., a number and a quality of connection channels) between the countries. An epidemic is detected in its infancy and its spread is monitored in time and propagation across different countries. Then, effective security and protection measures can be invoked in a timely manner.